After the last-gasp 1-0 win over Preston North End last Saturday moved the Canaries closer to the play-offs than the relegation zone for the first time since probably August, some fans have started to dream that a repeat of the 2001/2002 season could be on the cards.
Glenn Roeder’s men currently sit thirteenth in the Championship on 38 points after thirty games. At the same point in the play-off campaign we had 50 points and were only outside of the play-off places on goal difference.
On that basis you’d say it looked a little bleak at best until you dig a little deeper into that league table, and realise that with just seven matches to go we had slipped to tenth and were 6 points adrift of the play-offs. So if you’re an optimist (and don’t tell anyone but I’m quickly becoming one) you could say we’ve got one more point to make up and nine more games to do it in. Well that sounds do-able. Doesn’t it?
Momentum is a big thing in the Championship. Every year a team seems to come from nowhere to break into the play-off picture. We did it before in 2002, why not again now?
The division is probably tighter this year than it has been for many a year. The old adage of any team being able to beat any other has certainly held true this term. 75 points is about the norm for a play-off place, but given the unpredictably of this year’s table it is entirely possible that the team finishing 6th could have as little as 68 or 69 points.
If that is proven to be the case we need to pick up 30 odd points from our remaining 16 matches – an average of just under 2 points per game. On current form we’re pretty much on that now, but can we sustain a realistic push for glory and a possible day out at Wembley?
This is how I think the rest of our season will pan out:
9th February – Cardiff City (A). My prediction: Draw.
12th February – Hull City (H). My prediction: Norwich to win.
16th February – Leicester City (A). My prediction: Norwich to win.
23rd February – Barnsley (H). My prediction: Norwich to win.
1st March – Blackpool (H). My prediction: Norwich to win.
4th March – Watford (A). My prediction: Watford to win.
8th March – Coventry City (A). My prediction: Draw.
11th March – Stoke City (H). My prediction: Draw.
15th March – Sheffield Utd (A). My prediction: Sheffield Utd to win.
22nd March – Colchester Utd (H). My prediction: Norwich to win.
29th March – Bristol City (A). My prediction: Bristol City to win.
5th April – Burnley (H). My prediction: Norwich to win.
13th April – Ipswich Town (A). My prediction: Draw.
19th April – West Brom (H). My prediction: Draw.
26th April – Queens Park Rangers (H). My prediction: Norwich to win.
4th May – Sheffield Wed (A). My prediction: Draw.
Assuming I manage to get all of those predictions right – and if you’ve read much of my other ramblings you’ll know I’ve got a bit of a hit/miss record when it comes to predictions which is a little disappointing for a self-appointed Guru I must admit – we’ll pick up an extra 27 points to finish with 65.
If my predictions are correct February will be a good month (with a possible manager of the month award thrown in for good measure), March will yield only two victories but fear not – after Bristol City we will complete the season with a five game undefeated run.
If anything I think I may have been a little optimistic seeing as I’ve only got us down to lose three more times between now and the end of the season, but it doesn’t take much of a mathematical genius to work out that if a few of those draws are turned into wins, and a few more defeats are thrown in we could still be looking at the high 60s come the beginning of May so it’s not impossible by any means.
One thing’s for sure though and that’s that our home form is absolutely vital. My predictions have us taking 21 points from a possible 24 at Carrow Road, which would be no mean feat in itself.
A 65-point haul last time round was good enough for a 12th place finish. This season it’ll probably be good for 10th-12th – somewhere around where we are at the moment in other words.
First up on the run-in is Cardiff away. Ninian Park is always a difficult place to get a result and their manager Dave Jones has just won the manager of the month award for January, so here’s hoping the infamous manager of the month curse continues for another month at least.
Hats off to those of you making the long trip west to South Wales. I’m sure you would all like to join me in thanking the league for arranging a midday kick-off for what is probably one of the longest journeys of the calendar…and all because of the egg-chasing as well, but I digress.
If you’d said to me in October after watching the debacle that was Queens Park Rangers (A) on Sky that we could finish mid-table I’d have ripped your arm off as I’m sure would a lot of others. That doesn’t mean I don’t think we can make the play-offs, I just think it unlikely.
The odds on City getting promoted with most online bookies are around the 14/1 mark (the highest odds I’ve seen this week are 16/1). Contrast now with the tale-end days of Peter Grant’s reign when we were odds on favourites for relegation and it’s easy to see why I’d “settle” for mid-table, which I think is much more realistic.
The fact there is a debate to be had in the first place is testament to the job Roeder and his team have done thus far, and is precisely why all of a sudden it’s a good time to be a Norwich City supporter again.
OTBC.
What do you think? Can City reach the play-offs? What is a realistic points target between now and the end of the campaign? As always please let me know your thoughts and opinions…
